Lula Reelection Leaves Brazil Betting Ban Facing Legal Tests
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s election victory leaves Brazil’s betting operators facing continued uncertainty over whether they can return to business. The president secured a fourth term while the government’s nationwide betting ban remained in effect and operators’ federal authorisations expired on the day of the runoff.
Betting companies had hoped a change of president would bring revisions to Provisional Measure 1,394. Industry representatives reportedly contacted people close to Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign about possible changes. Lula’s victory ends that immediate prospect, although Congress and the Supreme Federal Court can still alter the measure’s future.
Closed Market Leaves Licence Costs Unresolved
Lula signed MP 1,394 on September 25. Betting websites went offline on October 6, followed by the expiry of federal licences on October 25. During the campaign, he presented the prohibition as protection for indebted families and promised before the runoff that betting would not return.
The regulated market had opened in January 2025 under the framework established by Law 14.790, which lawmakers approved in 2023. Operators entering the federal licensing system paid BRL30 million for five-year concessions, alongside an additional BRL5 million in reserves.
The provisional measure has not provided refunds for those licence payments. Reported estimates put operators’ lost revenue at approximately BRL1.2 billion following the suspension, with the government losing more than BRL400 million in tax receipts.
Existing authorisations present a separate question if lawmakers permit betting to resume. Congress may need to decide whether businesses can return under their former approvals or must submit new applications.
Runoff Reverses Earlier Election Expectations
The Superior Electoral Court’s count showed Lula holding 51.75% of valid votes at 9:12pm Brasília time on October 25, when officials had counted 99.75% of ballots. Bolsonaro held 48.25% at that point.
Bolsonaro had finished ahead in the October 4 first round, receiving 47.03% compared with Lula’s 45.16%. Prediction market traders also favoured him before the runoff: Polymarket placed his chances of winning at around 78% in the preceding weeks.
Those expectations changed as results arrived. By approximately 9pm Brasília time, with roughly 80% of votes counted, Polymarket gave Lula a 99% probability of victory.
Congress and Courts Retain Power to Change the Ban
The administration’s renewed electoral mandate leaves the legislative process unfinished. MP 1,394 still needs congressional approval to remain in force, and lawmakers have proposed more than 90 amendments.
Some proposals would permit sports betting to return while maintaining restrictions on online casino games. A joint committee has appointed members from both congressional chambers, although it had yet to select a president and rapporteur in the available reporting. The committee review precedes votes in the Chamber of Deputies and Federal Senate.
The Supreme Federal Court also faces three actions challenging the measure, with Justice Luiz Fux serving as rapporteur. Industry associations ANJL and IBJR filed one of those actions on September 28. Broadcasters and football clubs, including Flamengo, have joined the legal opposition.
Fux is expected to consider suspending the measure before the full court reaches its decision. The Attorney General’s Office has defended retaining the prohibition, describing betting as a “dragon” that required taming.
Congress can still amend or reject the measure, while a judicial intervention could arrive before lawmakers complete their work. Neither the election result nor the expiry of existing licences has resolved the conditions under which regulated betting might return.
Source:
Lula Re-Election Keeps Brazil Betting Ban Government in Power, news.worldcasinodirectory.com, October 26, 2026.