How Low With Bitcoin Go?

[edgarf76]

Whats up guys and gals. I started a Bitcoin/crypto thread a while ago and it still seems to keep going. That said, I wanted to start another thread about the price and what people think longterm and short term. In my opinion, Bitcoin has gone through it's 6,000 support and will retrace to the 5200-5500 mark before it rebounds. I am still bullish long term but think we will see movement on the dowside first. My two cents.

 

[Engineer]

I called $3,000 in this thread, and I stand by it.

All cryptos will be dragged down with BTC, but when the recovery finally begins, look for the coins with superior technology to far outperform legacy BTC.

Specifically, I think Bitcoin Cash will take over as the dominant cryptocurrency. It's faster and cheaper than legacy Bitcoin, and as more people realize this, the more popular it will become.

 

[TheGooner]

The base cost for mining a BTC is around $6,400.

This is calculated on an an estimate $80K of power use by miners servers around the world every 10 minutes, which is rewarded by a new mined block and a 12.5 BTC reward. ($80K divided by $12.5 BTC = $6.4K).

I expect to see the figure of approx. $6K mining cost act as a floor for BTC - just as the $1000 to $1100 cost of mining an ounce of gold is a floor for the precious metal.

What is interesting is that the miner reward will halve in early 2020 according the the pre-arranged algo's, so potentially the mining cost will rise to over $12K per coin (if miner activity stays constant).

So if BTC has a basic market force then I'd expect to start seeing a rise towards that figure starting somewhere in mid-2019. We have seen in previous "halvings" that this has occured.

(Of course it's impossible to know how cryptos WILL behave - it's just an observation of past performance)

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AS for BCash (BCH) - it's an orphan child/fork that no-one uses - which is why it's fast to get transactions through. It has very few people working on it - centralised mining - and a very divisive spokesperson in Roger Ver.

The only thing that they've managed to do is push the potential for BIG blocks to 32MB - potentially allowing for 40K transactions per block. But at present they only do 100 txns every 10 minutes. No-one is using it.

It's history means it's unlikely to be adopted by most crypto people - I don't see a big future for it - but at $600 to $700 there is probably a rise in it's future.

 

[LandofOz]

Many of the posts on twitter are predicting a potential bottom between $4,500 - $5,500. A really good and informative crypto twitter account that I can recommend is https://twitter.com/tradingroomapp

The other point to consider is that if the SEC approve ETF, then the price of BTC will shoot up to an all time high https://www.ccn.com/hayes-a-positive-regulatory-etf-will-push-bitcoin-to-50000-in-2018/

 

[KasinoKing]

Who cares - some bastard hackers stole all mine in June...
(Close to $30,000 worth)
https://www.affiliateguarddog.com/c...ain-info-wallet-hacked-emptied-warning.11666/

Giving up on this whole Crypto-currency thing for a while at least - it just makes me sick.

KK

 

[edgarf76]

Good Insight Guys. @Gooner I was watching Fast Money on CNBC and the way they explained the cost of mining is that MOST miners shut off around the 6000 level but there are some miners that keep mining and split the smaller profits. @KasinoKing - sorry to hear that.

 

[TheGooner]

I wouldn't rely on CNBC to mind my lunch money


Most of the big bitcoin sites have invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in servers and setup.

Here is a graph of the bitcoin blockchain hashrate (mining rate).
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate

You can see it wiggles - but look at the trend - people are NOT shutting off.

Actually : I like this site better - it shows multiple coins. (just click on them below)
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html

 

[RobertJames.RJ]

Whats up guys and gals. I started a Bitcoin/crypto thread a while ago and it still seems to keep going. That said, I wanted to start another thread about the price and what people think longterm and short term. In my opinion, Bitcoin has gone through it's 6,000 support and will retrace to the 5200-5500 mark before it rebounds. I am still bullish long term but think we will see movement on the dowside first. My two cents.

I think it going down, a speculators already earn some money form pools, fee of transaction and else.
So, when laws get to crypto world we will surprise by this effect

 

[edgarf76]

I wouldn't rely on CNBC to mind my lunch money


Most of the big bitcoin sites have invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in servers and setup.

Here is a graph of the bitcoin blockchain hashrate (mining rate).
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate

You can see it wiggles - but look at the trend - people are NOT shutting off.

Actually : I like this site better - it shows multiple coins. (just click on them below)
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html

That is very telling, I can see the sharp decline from 39,000,000 terahash down to 30,000,000 but it is a strong uptrend, which is suggesting IMO that more people are coming in to mine regardless of the price. That said, BTC made a move up to 66,0-0, which I was not expecting.

 

[Vargoso]

The base cost for mining a BTC is around $6,400.

This is calculated on an an estimate $80K of power use by miners servers around the world every 10 minutes, which is rewarded by a new mined block and a 12.5 BTC reward. ($80K divided by $12.5 BTC = $6.4K).

I expect to see the figure of approx. $6K mining cost act as a floor for BTC - just as the $1000 to $1100 cost of mining an ounce of gold is a floor for the precious metal.

What is interesting is that the miner reward will halve in early 2020 according the the pre-arranged algo's, so potentially the mining cost will rise to over $12K per coin (if miner activity stays constant).

So if BTC has a basic market force then I'd expect to start seeing a rise towards that figure starting somewhere in mid-2019. We have seen in previous "halvings" that this has occured.

(Of course it's impossible to know how cryptos WILL behave - it's just an observation of past performance)

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2 questions arise here for me (I'm newbie in cryptos so sorry if questions are dumb :

1. What would be the price once the 21million mark is reached?
2. Just curious, the mining cost exponentially incremented too, or just the people mining it? I mean, how was people mining BTC when it was starting? It was a lot easy?

 

[edgarf76]

2 questions arise here for me (I'm newbie in cryptos so sorry if questions are dumb :

1. What would be the price once the 21million mark is reached? - Not Sure, Some people have high expections from 5K up to 1M (John Macaffe)
2. Just curious, the mining cost exponentially incremented too, or just the people mining it? I mean, how was people mining BTC when it was starting? It was a lot easy? Yes, the difficulty level has increased a great deal for cloud and regular mining. Some "Experts" claim the cost to produce 1BTC is 6K, however that is just speculation. The @gooner showed some interesting charts to debunk that.

Bitcoin made a little pop up to 6700. I was not expecting that, although with BTC you never know.

 

[TheGooner]

1/ Mining rewards and price.
The mining reward for BTC will continue to be reduced every four years right through to 2120.
Each step is in 210,000 blocks (or about 4 years) so from 2021-2024 there will be 6.25 BTC reward, then 2025-2028 3.125 etc.

It's impossible to tell what the price WILL be in 2020 - let alone 2120.

Fans say a single BTC will be worth millions, and that a single "satoshi" (0.00000001 of a BTC) may be worth 1 cent and be the base of trade. Skeptics say it will fail and be worth zero.

There could be a middle ground too - but no-one seems to think that will happen.

2/ Mining Efforts and Costs.
Yes the number of competing miners, and the difficulty and associated costs have increased significantly as the price of BTC as grown meaning the rewards have grown.

Initially, people could use basic computers and laptops and create the block getting a 50 BTC reward that was worth about 50 cents in total - it was an oddity not a business. Most miners did it as a hobby.

As the potential rewards for mining a block in 10 minutes increased to real money people started setting up dedicated servers in spare bedrooms and then later on specialised mining rugs with dedicated graphics cards to chase the profits.

Although the rewards have halved twice to 12.5 BTC, the total rewards are much higher now because BTC is far more valuable. (US$80,000 per block).

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The upshot is that the algorithm for creating BTC was very, very elegant with a limited supply and a decreasing amount of rewards every four years. BTC is designed to do the opposite of fiat money which devalues each year as central governments print billion and billions of dollars / pounds / euros / yem / yuan / rubles every WEEK.

Currently around 82% of the 21,000,000 possible BTC are in existence and this is growing at 656250 (or 3% of total) each year until 2020. Supply is limited and controlled by mathematics (not politicians) and THAT is what is creating the interest and growth in value as more people chase a limited supply.

This page is a good primer for more background.
https://www.bitcoinmining.com/what-is-the-bitcoin-block-reward/

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SUMMARY.
BTC is a weird thing - it may go up - it may go to zero. As adoption and acceptance grows in the general population - the chances of BTC going to zero steadily reduce. BTC is digital but digitial is a REAL thing in this computer age so it is no different to any other limited thing like diamonds, gold, platinum etc. It is limited, it is scarce.

BTC also does have a function as a transaction vechicle for interenational payments (as we affiliates know) and banks and politicians don't like it because they cannot control it and cannot charge fees for it and it lessens their overall grip on the money supply and flow of money across borders.

BTC exists - but guessing what it's price will be at any point in time is still a very speculative exercise.