Gibraltar Grants First Prediction Market License

Gibraltar has approved its first license for a prediction market operator, introducing a new regulated activity within its existing gambling framework. The decision signals a shift in approach at a time when European regulators remain divided over how to classify and oversee such platforms.

The announcement was delivered in parliament by Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry Nigel Feetham, who outlined the government’s intention to expand its digital gambling and financial services sectors. Predict Street Ltd has been added to Gibraltar’s official register of betting intermediaries as of March 26 under the 2005 Gambling Act.

Authorities processed the application under current legislation before updated laws take effect. Officials described the approval timeline as unusually fast. Feetham stated, “We expect this to be a substantial area of growth for Gibraltar.” He also added, “This represents record timing for the issuing of a regulatory license in Gibraltar.”

Economic Pressures Drive Policy Shift

The move comes as Gibraltar faces increasing financial pressure tied to changes in the United Kingdom’s gambling tax structure. The local gaming sector remains a major contributor to the economy, employing around 3,500 people and generating approximately one-third of government tax revenue.

Recent increases in Remote Gaming Duty and Remote Betting Duty in the UK have raised concerns about higher operating costs for companies connected to Gibraltar. In response, authorities have intensified efforts to attract new types of operators.

Feetham acknowledged these developments, stating, “Since the introduction of the recent UK gambling duty increases, I have taken a more direct responsibility for promoting Gibraltar’s regulatory offering.”

Officials have directly linked the introduction of prediction market licensing to broader economic considerations. Feetham also said, “We are working relentlessly to protect Gibraltar’s economic interests.”

Nigel Freeman addressed the need for ongoing adaptation, stating, “There is no room for complacency.” He continued, “We must continue to adapt decisively to a changing global economic environment. And adapt we must.”

Predict Street Moves Toward Launch

Predict Street, the first licensed operator, is preparing to enter the market with a crypto-based platform backed by Abu Dhabi blockchain firm ADI Chain. The company has already opened registrations for early access ahead of its scheduled launch on April 9.

The platform promotes itself as the “Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026,” with the tournament set to begin on June 11. Its model allows users to trade contracts linked to the outcomes of future events, combining elements of financial markets with betting-style participation.

Prediction markets enable users to take positions on real-world developments, including sports and political events. This structure continues to raise questions about whether such platforms should be regulated as gambling services or financial instruments.

Europe Divided on Regulation

Gibraltar’s decision contrasts with the stricter approach taken in several European jurisdictions. Countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, France, and Portugal have moved to restrict or block prediction market platforms, often classifying them as unauthorized or illegal under existing laws.

Despite these restrictions, user activity has continued across the region, indicating ongoing demand even in regulated markets. Some jurisdictions have begun exploring alternative approaches rather than outright bans.

Malta has signaled interest in evaluating the sector further. Economy Minister Silvio Schembri said the government is “actively exploring the emerging field of prediction markets, an area experiencing rapid global momentum which presents significant opportunities for innovation.” He added that any regulatory approach must be “supported by a clear, forward-looking legislative framework that enables it to develop responsibly and at scale”.

Outside Europe, the United States has become a key testing ground for prediction markets. Platforms there operate under oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, though they continue to face legal scrutiny, particularly in relation to sports-related contracts.

Uncertainty Around Future Expansion

While Gibraltar has taken a step toward accommodating prediction market operators, the long-term outlook remains unclear. Regulatory differences across Europe could limit expansion opportunities, especially for companies seeking access to larger markets such as the United Kingdom.

Authorities in the UK have indicated that prediction markets would likely fall under gambling regulations, requiring operators to obtain local licenses to operate legally. This could present additional challenges for Gibraltar-based companies.

It also remains uncertain whether more operators will follow Predict Street into Gibraltar or whether existing betting companies in the territory will expand into this segment.

For now, the licensing decision reflects an effort to diversify Gibraltar’s economy and respond to changing conditions within the global gaming sector. The extent to which prediction markets become a permanent part of that strategy will depend on future regulatory developments across multiple jurisdictions.

Source:

Gibraltar Grants First Prediction Market License, news.worldcasinodirectory.com, April 2, 2026