End of the month dip

Discussion in 'Anything Goes' started by SnazzySlots, Mar 1, 2018.

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    SnazzySlots

    SnazzySlots Member

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    Hi Guys,

    I am wondering if any of you are seeing a trend of earnings dropping significantly on the last 2 days of the month.

    I am trying to wrap my head around why this happens and if there is a possibility that programs are actually shaving earnings.

    How is it possible to lose at 3-4 brands on the LAST day and take a kick in the teeth for 2-3k especially when earnings are good?
     
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    punditter

    punditter New Member

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    This always happens to me and it stinks. Very frustrating! Can NEVER figure out why. Guessing it's just the way the programs roll because it doesn't happen every single month for me.
     
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    LA-Martyn

    LA-Martyn Affiliate Program Representative

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    Speaking for my own program and what i know historically, this can happen around pay days as the activity is increased, but it's not always the case that it drops. For the US, you may also see it around mid month as a lot of people in the US get bi-weekly pay days.

    Again, speaking for myself only and not for others.
     
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    Frank

    Frank Affiliate Guard Dog Member

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    I never see this, is it sports or casino? I know last Friday is pay day month for a lot all the way until the 1st.. usually a lot more deposits come in
     
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    NDG

    NDG Affiliate Guard Dog Member

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    Look at all of the statistical data, historical data and then compare to other similar programs that
    you are promoting. Talk to the affiliate manager about what you are seeing. Take in all of this data
    and then use your own gut feeling to decide whether it could be legit play or something else entirely.
    I've seen players wipe out earnings at the end of the month.. and then give it right back next month.
     
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    KasinoKing

    KasinoKing Player turned affiliate.

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    I don't know - cos I don't look at my stats until after the end of the month! :cool:
    (Saves all that stress!)

    KK
     
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    BetReels

    BetReels Affiliate Program Representative

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    Could be that it's payday "week" and players spend more and win more. Just an assumption of course :)
     
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    AussieDave

    AussieDave 18 years & still going!

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    A few years back now BUT... affiliates who promoted RTG casinos (not all but some places), would dish out Manager Bonuses (aka cashback) at EOM or close to it. The bonuses combined with players winning, seemed to make a huge dent in commissions.

    I use a rule of thumb these days, that is... If I'm suspect on something, then it's probably something I need to investigate. If after speaking with my AM, things still don't add up, then I drop the program. No point stressing over stuff if, each month, your seeing the same results.

    Players win, but casinos hold the house edge.
    If players are always winning, and your always down thousands at EOM, something is definitely not Kosher.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2018
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    SnazzySlots

    SnazzySlots Member

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    Casino.
     
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    SnazzySlots

    SnazzySlots Member

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    Thanks for the comments guys - Looking at the stats from one of the programs - I think i have like 8-9 months out of 12 where commission goes down on the last day. Some other months, there is a huge dip in the last 2-4 days and a fractional recovery on the last 2.

    Looked at the stats in the week and I already knew my Rev would drop by close to 1k at the program on the last day. Could possibly be realted to month end and players having more funds to play. When you kind of 'expect' it to drop is when i start asking myself whether the stats are genuine.
     
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    eenzoo

    eenzoo Member

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    Probably one of the best "tips" ever but i would cheat every week :-D
     
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    Biti

    Biti Affiliate Guard Dog Member

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    Some people shave themself just once a month.

    Sure thing that end of the month more people are cashing out. More people are playing, depositing more, hence bigger chance they win more too. I've seen this in confidentiality in at least 3 casinos.

    But sometimes it stinks too. Got some programs where every month commission is trashed by some winner. At one program I ended up negative 22 months of last 24 months.
     
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    TheGooner

    TheGooner Affiliate Guard Dog Member

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    An end of month dip can happen naturally - but when it's repetitive then you have cause for concern - and the best action to take is to extricate yourself OUT of that program..

    WHAT ARE THE ODDS ?
    If you experience one dip once a month at a program - then I guess there is a 10% chance that it will happen at month end (within the last 3 days of 30 day month) - that's means it might happen once a year per program.

    If you have 10+ programs then you might expect it to happen on average once per month, or as Martyn has said if it is related to pay days, then you might expect a bad month with multiple hits once per year.

    If it's happening more often than that - 25%, 50% or more - then it's likely that there are "special" activities going on at a program causing it. Those special things might be legitimate (they run all chargebacks at end of month) - or they might be fraudulent.

    Note :
    If you have a small player base - less than 50-100 active players - and experience dips more frequently during other times (2 times per month or 3 times per month) then you have to expect a proportionately higher frequency at end of month too.

    OUR SITUATION :
    I've routinely taken action (dropped) against programs that I experienced frequent bad dips at - and we now have around 15-20 solid programs that we promote. I'm happy to say that I do not see ANY dodgy activity from these groups - and do not approach the "end of month" with any fear at all.

    It does NOT have to be about working with rogues and clipjoints and getting screwed. Do yourself and your players a favour by moving up the foodchain a little bit.
     
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    slotplayer

    slotplayer Affiliate Guard Dog Member

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    The only time I've ever seen it, the deposits also increased.
     
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    punditter

    punditter New Member

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    Well said mate.
     
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    Kadabra

    Kadabra Affiliate Guard Dog Member

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    there is a big difference between earnings dropping and deposits dropping. The second one can be due to paydays and such. The first one - is more tricky. if it happens too often - something is fishy. But make sure you really check things out, since we all tend to notice that time that earnings dropped on the last day, but forget all the times they went up.
     
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    PROFRBcom

    PROFRBcom Rakeback affiliate and professional poker player.

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    I've noticed deposits drop off a bit for poker at the end of the month with a multiple programs. It's not every month with every program and thus I always presumed it was just an ebb and flow situation. Or perhaps more accurately, all the funds have flowed out of our user's bank accounts and need to be replenished with that beginning of the month pay check heh.
     
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    DaftDog

    DaftDog Affiliate Guard Dog Member

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    When I earned a salary it usually arrived on the 25th of each month. I could then afford to splash out on my preferred month end dip which was cream-cheese and chives.
     
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    BetReels

    BetReels Affiliate Program Representative

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    "End of the month Salticrax" - Saffirs will get this :D

     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2018
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    CL-Ed

    CL-Ed Affiliate Guard Dog Member

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    So you land a whale and you have racked up an incredible commission from one player, the most you've ever seen in fact. You tell your business partner about it and he's excited, it's all good. But then you tell him not to get too excited because you don't send that program much traffic and they are bound to want to avoid paying it. After going at it solidly for a couple of weeks, the player has stopped playing. You predict that the player will reappear and have an amazing "big win" at the end of the month, just wait and see.

    And it happens of course... this screenshot is for a single customer this month at an as yet unnamed program. I am trying to get some answers but really what can you do? You either believe a program is honest or you don't. It is all too predictable. They aren't going to say "oh sorry you caught us shaving, let us reverse our mistake". So I'll wait for the denial then I'll tell you all who this is so you can make your own decisions about who you want to work with.

    shaving.png
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2018

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